Published September 25, 2026 in Market Update

7 Things Nobody Tells You About 4.4 Months of Supply

By Jasmin Bradley

Real estate, market update clean

4.4 months of supply sounds like a neutral number. Not too hot, not too cold. But pull it apart and the picture gets a lot more interesting. I went through every listing in my market data through September 25, 2026, and what I found is not what most people expect. Some of it is good news. Some of it is a warning. All of it is true.

1. Half the homes for sale already dropped their price

Right now, 1,651 homes are for sale in this market. More than half of them, 52%, already cut their price before finding a buyer. The typical cut is $14,100. That is not a small adjustment. That is a seller who started too high and had to come back to earth. If your home is sitting without offers, you are probably not priced wrong by a little. You are priced wrong by at least that much.

2. The sweet spot is $250K to $350K, and it is not close

Homes priced between $250K and $350K sold in a typical 30 days and gave up at the lowest rate of any price range, just 20.8%. Compare that to homes under $200K, where 33.6% came off the market with no sale. The $250K to $350K range also hit 100% of its last asking price. That range is where buyers are most ready and most able to act. If your home sits near the edge of that band, the data says price into it, not above it.

3. Homes built in the 2000s sold faster than anything built since

This one surprises people. You might think a brand-new home would sell the fastest. It does not. Homes built in the 2000s sold in a typical 22 days. Homes built in the 2020s took 49 days. That is 27 days longer.

4. Waiting past month one costs you real money

Homes that found a buyer in the first month got 100% of what they first asked. Every month after that, the number drops. By months five and six, the typical seller got only 90.9% of their first price. The market does not reward patience. It penalizes it. If your home is not finding a buyer in month one, the price is the most likely reason.

5. 345 sellers walked away with nothing

This number does not show up in the headline supply figures. But it is real. In this same period, 345 lived-in homes came off the market with no sale and never came back. That is 3.6 for every 10 that did sell. The typical first asking price of homes that gave up was $275,000. The typical first asking price of homes that sold was $294,900. The homes that gave up actually asked less, and still did not sell. Most of those sellers could have avoided this with an honest conversation before they listed.

6. The last bidding war was 50 days ago

The last home that sold 3% or more over its asking price went under contract on August 6, on Waterford Drive. Since then, 165 lived-in homes went under contract and none of them triggered a bidding war. That does not mean buyers are gone. It means buyers are not panicking. They are reading the room. If you are a buyer who has been waiting for competition to cool down, it already has. A fair note: homes that went under contract in the last few weeks have not closed yet, so this count will update.

7. Your local supply is tighter than the national number

The national months of supply for existing homes hit 4.9 months in August 2026, its highest level in over ten years, according to the National Association of Realtors. This market sits at 4.4 months. That half-month difference matters. Under 4 months favors sellers. Over 6 favors buyers. At 4.4, we are closer to balanced, but we are not a buyer's market yet. The national picture is softer than what is happening here.

What this means for you right now

If you are selling, the data is clear: price it right before you list, not after the market tells you it is wrong. The typical home that sold got 97.1% of its first asking price. The ones that sat past month four got 93.2%. That gap only grows. With Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey showing the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year ago, buyers are already stretching. They will not stretch further for an overpriced home.

If you are buying, the bidding war era is quiet right now, and 52% of active listings have already come down in price. That gives you room to negotiate, but not unlimited room. The $250K to $350K range is still competitive, with homes closing in 30 days and hitting full price. If you are shopping there, move with a plan. If you are shopping above $450K, homes in that range took a typical 40 days, and 27.4% came off the market without selling, which means more choices and more room to negotiate than you would have had a year ago.